INSIDe
Integrative modeling of the spread of Serious Infectious Diseases
Project objectives
In order to be able to take effective and at the same time appropriate measures in case of outbreaks of infectious diseases such as the Corona pandemic, political decision-makers need the best possible basis of information on the prevalence of infections. However, for the vast majority of infectious diseases, the information basis is insufficient. This is, because often officially reported case numbers are unrepresentative due to lack of availability or reliability of tests to detect these infections.
A source of data independent of tests and officially reported case numbers is wastewater. Much information on pathogens can be found here. The goal of INSIDe is to develop a software platform that can simulate the spread of infectious diseases detectable in wastewater and hence detect infection outbreaks at an early stage. In addition, the platform will enable the simulation of disease spread under different conditions in order to assess the impact of possible countermeasures or testing strategies on the prevalence of infections.
Project structure
INSIDe consists of five working packages.
Working Package 1 - INSIDe platform
In WP1, the INSIDe software platform is developed. It will be used to integrate several mathematical models that model different aspects of infectious diseases based on a variety of data and will be combined into one complex model. In recent years, several models have already been developed for simulating the spread of infectious diseases. However, these are limited in their predictive accuracy, partly due to inadequate data, as they do not allow for the integration of wastewater observations, for example. By combining different models based on diverse data using the INSIDe platform, we aim to improve the predictive accuracy of the simulation. This will result in easier assessment and prediction of infectious disease spread.
Working Package 2 - Epidemiological Models
In WP2, a modular open-source simulation tool for the simultaneous transmission of multiple infectious diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 is being developed. The modularity of the software framework allows individual models to be exchanged for others, for example to consider the effect of new variants or interactions. The efficient implementation guarantees the optimal use of the available computational resources to consider different scenarios. The model will use an adaptable spatial resolution to do justice to the dynamics of the infection event. Furthermore, the implementation of different testing and reporting models takes into account that non-symptomatic cases, for example, are hardly detected if testing is mainly symptom-based.
Working Package 3 -Detailed Sewer system models
In WP3, detailed computational models are being developed for neighborhood sewer systems for infectious disease surveillance. Many pathogens are detectable in wastewater and a major advantage of wastewater testing is that it is independent of testing and reporting strategies and can provide a picture of infection incidence across the population. The detailed model will provide insights from wastewater sample measurements on infection incidence and also help determine the region where the virus was most likely released into the wastewater network.
The detailed model will allow conclusions to be drawn from wastewater sampling at various locations in the sewer system as to where there is an increased number of infected individuals in the residential area.
Working Package 4 - Wide-meshed sewer network models
In addition to implementing a machine interface between sewer system models and the INSIDe software platform, WP4 will develop approaches for automatically constructing coarsened computational models for sewer systems of large cities for infectious disease surveillance. Coarsening of the sewer system model may be useful in certain cases for computational time reasons and is necessary because constructing detailed models for entire cities is too time-consuming and expensive or the required information is not available (as is the case for many cities in countries of the global South).
Working Package 5 - Data gathering
In WP 5, existing datasets will be enriched to support the construction of models for the sewer network system, to validate the INSIDe platform, and to evaluate the possibility of using wastewater samples in early warning systems. To this end, pulse-chase experiments will be conducted in the sewer network at sites in Munich and Addis Ababa, which will provide information on flow patterns in the sewer systems. Furthermore, targeted analyses of wastewater samples will be performed, which will provide information on selected infectious diseases. In addition, untargeted DNA and RNA sequencing of wastewater samples will be conducted for the establishment of an early warning system. Sequencing results will be matched with entries in a pathogen database to detect unanticipated pathogens in wastewater.
Project leaders and partners
Prof. Dr. Jan Hasenauer
Universität Bonn
PD Dr. Andreas Wieser
Klinikum der Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München
Prof. Dr. Christian Schaum
Prof. Dr. Steffen Krause
Universität der Bundeswehr
Dr. Martin Kühn
German Aerospace Center
Dr. Andreas Hofmann
Gerald Angermair
Tandler