PROGNOSIS

Epidemic Hospital Resource Demand – Modeling Incidence, Bed-occupancy, Staffing and Supply Chains

Project objectives

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated that health care capacity can be overloaded even in highly developed countries, resulting not only in inadequate care for COVID-19 patients but also in impacts on overall health system efficiency, such as reduced prevention and screening programs and delayed surgeries. The PROGNOSIS consortium brings together partners from five institutions with complementary expertise in biostatistics, bioinformatics, epidemiology, health services research, infectious diseases, and economics to address this pressing problem with a principled and holistic approach. Data-driven short-term and mechanistic long-term predictive models of hospital burden at different levels of care (standard, intensive, ventilator, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation / ECMO) for three important respiratory infections: COVID-19, influenza, and pneumococcal pneumonia are developed. Different episodes of the epidemic and different geographic levels (Germany, states, counties) are also considered to allow local predictions. The models are parameterized using extensive and continuously growing data sets from ongoing collaborations with several German institutions and competence networks. Based on this, the impact on hospital supply chains and human resources will also be modeled to derive specific short-term countermeasures to address the expected burden on hospitals and to assess the effectiveness of long-term measures such as vaccination programs and non-pharmaceutical interventions. The modeling approach is designed to be transferable to other pan- and epidemic situations.

Project structure

PROGNOSIS consists of three subprojects.

Subproject 1

Short- and long-term forecasting models for hospital loads in a COVID-19 pandemic (project partners Aachen, Dresden, Leipzig):

In this subproject, data-driven short-term forecasting models and mechanistic long-term forecasting models will be combined with a model of hospital occupancy at different levels of care. The main application example is the COVID-19 epidemic in Germany. In addition, we will investigate at which time horizons data-driven or mechanistic models are superior in terms of forecasting.

Subproject 2

Impact of pandemics on hospital supply chains and human resources (project partners Augsburg, Münster):

The project partners Augsburg and Münster are modeling the bottlenecks in human resources caused by pandemic conditions and possible disruptions in supply chains of medical goods, respectively. The models will be linked to the models developed in SP1 and 3. The aim is to predict the hospital economic impact of a pandemic on a short- and medium-term time scale.

Subproject 3

Predictive and simulation models of hospital resource needs for other respiratory tract infections (project partners all):

The methods developed in SP 1 and 2 will be extended to other respiratory infectious diseases. Specifically, the approaches will be extended to epidemiological models of influenza and pneumococcal pneumonia. In addition, a reusable tool will be developed to rapidly transfer the approaches to new pandemics.

Project leaders and partners

Prof. Dr. Markus Scholz

Coordinator
Subproject 1,3

Universität Leipzig

Prof. Dr. Andreas Schuppert

Deputy Coordinator
Subproject 1,3

Rheinisch Westfälische Technische Hochschule Aachen

Dr. Veronika Bierbaum

Subproject 1,3

TU Dresden

Dr. Jan Schoenfelder

Subproject 2,3

Universität Augsburg

Prof. Dr. Bernd Hellingrath

Subproject 2,3

WWU Münster